◾A method other than a prediction market produces the best predictions

As we’ve seen in the introduction, prediction markets have been shown to produce results at least as good as alternatives, so the data seems to state otherwise. Moreover, if there is a method able to provide results which are better than prediction markets, someone can apply it and then use it in the market for profit. Sure, initially the entity using a method outperforming the market may not have sufficient capital to move the market to its best estimates, but as markets get resolved, the entity outperforming the market would get more capital and would be able to get a greater influence on the market. In the medium to long term, good predictors get increasingly more influence on the market as they get more capital. So if someone tells you he has a method better than a prediction market, the answer is simple: « Use it to take positions on the market and you’ll get some profit ». Most of the time, it will work as a rhetorical statement as most PM critics do not really believe that the markets are wrong (or if they do, their belief is not strong enough for them to be willing to put some money at stake), but uses it as an excuse while their criticism of prediction markets come from different ethical viewpoints, but sometimes we may get people to really participate and improve prediction quality.