Seer
  • ๐Ÿง™Introduction to Seer
  • Prediction Market Basics
    • ๐Ÿช„Creating Tokens
    • ๐Ÿ”„Trading Tokens
    • ๐Ÿ”ฅRedeeming Tokens
    • โž•Scalar Markets
  • ๐Ÿ˜ตWhy did previous prediction markets fail?
    • โ—พA method other than a prediction market produces the best predictions
    • โ‰๏ธAn article shows a method over performing prediction market
    • ๐Ÿ”ŽIt's not ethical
    • ๐ŸฆRegulatory Attacks
    • ๐Ÿ’งLack of Liquidity
  • ๐ŸชกSeer Solution
    • ๐Ÿ”˜Seer DAO
    • ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎRetroactive Public Good Funding
    • ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆPrediction Market Actors
    • ๐ŸฅšThe Chicken and the egg problem
    • ๐Ÿ’ฐToken Incentives
    • โ„น๏ธInformation Seekers
    • ๐Ÿ“ˆExchange Integration
    • ๐Ÿ’ฆLiquidity Management
    • ๐Ÿ”’Safe Liquidity Provision
    • โžก๏ธPractical Implementation = AMM + Auctions
    • ๐Ÿ’กReasoning
    • โš•๏ธCapital Efficency
  • โš™๏ธApplications
    • ๐Ÿ•ด๏ธPolitical Predictions
    • ๐ŸฒFood and Drugs Market
    • ๐ŸŒMacro Studies
    • โบ๏ธMicro Recommendation
    • ๐Ÿ’ขFutarchy
    • ๐Ÿค–AI Markets
  • ๐ŸคConclusion
  • ๐Ÿ“„Reference
  • App
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  1. Prediction Market Basics

Scalar Markets

It is also possible to make markets to predict some metrics. This works by determining a [min,max] range and creating DOWN and UP tokens.

For example we could make a market ยซ What will be the inflation in the eurozone in 2024 ? ยป with a range of [0,10] %. In this case we would have some ยซ sDAI if Inflation DOWN ยป and ยซ sDAI if Inflation UP ยป tokens.

If the value returned by the oracle is the minimum of the range or lower, DOWN tokens redeem for the underlying. If the value is the maximum of the range or higher, UP tokens redeem for the underlying.

If the value is within the interval, DOWN and UP tokens each redeem partially:

  • UP tokens redeem for (value - min)/(max - min)

  • DOWN tokens redeem for (max - value)/(max - min).

For example, if the inflation is negative (i.e. deflation), ยซ sDAI if Inflation DOWN ยป tokens redeem for 1 sDAI each. If the inflation is of 2%, ยซ sDAI if Inflation DOWN ยป tokens redeem for 0.8 sDAI each and ยซ sDAI if Inflation UP ยป tokens redeem for 0.2 sDAI each.

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Last updated 1 year ago

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