🍲Food and Drugs Market

Current state health authorities are not optimal in predicting the consequences of foods, drugs, and medical procedures.

This generally comes from 3 problems:

• Those authorities have a bias toward rejection. Indeed, they have incentives to satisfy public opinion, and in terms of public opinion, a person dying after taking a drug they shouldn’t have makes a scandal, while someone dying, while his/her death could have been prevented if a novel drug was administered, barely makes any noise.

• Those authorities are under the control of politicians so have incentives to align their recommendations to the opinion of those in power. We can see examples of this in the treatment of substances used for recreational purposes (ex: CBD/THC) and the attitude toward the treatment of gender dysphoria which are directly linked to the people controlling the state.

• Those authorities may lack unbiased data, specifically in the early stages, to render their decisions. Data provided by pharmaceutical companies are obviously not neutral and independent studies take time to conclude.

With prediction markets, we can set up studies on the effect of particular foods, drugs or medical procedures. This can be done at the macro level or micro level.