Seer
  • ๐Ÿง™Introduction to Seer
  • Prediction Market Basics
    • ๐Ÿช„Creating Tokens
    • ๐Ÿ”„Trading Tokens
    • ๐Ÿ”ฅRedeeming Tokens
    • โž•Scalar Markets
  • ๐Ÿ˜ตWhy did previous prediction markets fail?
    • โ—พA method other than a prediction market produces the best predictions
    • โ‰๏ธAn article shows a method over performing prediction market
    • ๐Ÿ”ŽIt's not ethical
    • ๐ŸฆRegulatory Attacks
    • ๐Ÿ’งLack of Liquidity
  • ๐ŸชกSeer Solution
    • ๐Ÿ”˜Seer DAO
    • ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎRetroactive Public Good Funding
    • ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆPrediction Market Actors
    • ๐ŸฅšThe Chicken and the egg problem
    • ๐Ÿ’ฐToken Incentives
    • โ„น๏ธInformation Seekers
    • ๐Ÿ“ˆExchange Integration
    • ๐Ÿ’ฆLiquidity Management
    • ๐Ÿ”’Safe Liquidity Provision
    • โžก๏ธPractical Implementation = AMM + Auctions
    • ๐Ÿ’กReasoning
    • โš•๏ธCapital Efficency
  • โš™๏ธApplications
    • ๐Ÿ•ด๏ธPolitical Predictions
    • ๐ŸฒFood and Drugs Market
    • ๐ŸŒMacro Studies
    • โบ๏ธMicro Recommendation
    • ๐Ÿ’ขFutarchy
    • ๐Ÿค–AI Markets
  • ๐ŸคConclusion
  • ๐Ÿ“„Reference
  • App
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  1. Seer Solution

Capital Efficency

The underlying tokens of a prediction market are locked until they are redeemed, this can create a capital lockup cost for both traders and liquidity providers who could have gotten some yield if their capital were used for other means. This can be particularly problematic as this means that:

  • The incentives for liquidity providers should cover both the risk of losing money to serious traders and the yield they would have gotten if they had used the capital elsewhere (ex: for a specific market lasting a year, a liquidity provider expecting losing 2% of the capital to traders and could have gotten a 5% yield elsewhere would need at least a 7% yield to provide liquidity).

  • The edge that the serious trader thinks to have should be greater than his cost of capital in order to participate (ex: if a serious trader could have gotten a 5% yield and an outcome token is currently trading at 0.10, he needs to think that the likelihood of an outcome is at least 10.5% to buy those outcome tokens). This effect is worse in long term markets.

This can again be solved with โ€œmoney legoโ€ by using yield bearing underlying tokens. For Seer, we will start using sDAI which is a yield-bearing token stable (beside the yield) to the $.

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Last updated 1 year ago

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