Seer
  • ๐Ÿง™Introduction to Seer
  • Prediction Market Basics
    • ๐Ÿช„Creating Tokens
    • ๐Ÿ”„Trading Tokens
    • ๐Ÿ”ฅRedeeming Tokens
    • โž•Scalar Markets
  • ๐Ÿ˜ตWhy did previous prediction markets fail?
    • โ—พA method other than a prediction market produces the best predictions
    • โ‰๏ธAn article shows a method over performing prediction market
    • ๐Ÿ”ŽIt's not ethical
    • ๐ŸฆRegulatory Attacks
    • ๐Ÿ’งLack of Liquidity
  • ๐ŸชกSeer Solution
    • ๐Ÿ”˜Seer DAO
    • ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎRetroactive Public Good Funding
    • ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆPrediction Market Actors
    • ๐ŸฅšThe Chicken and the egg problem
    • ๐Ÿ’ฐToken Incentives
    • โ„น๏ธInformation Seekers
    • ๐Ÿ“ˆExchange Integration
    • ๐Ÿ’ฆLiquidity Management
    • ๐Ÿ”’Safe Liquidity Provision
    • โžก๏ธPractical Implementation = AMM + Auctions
    • ๐Ÿ’กReasoning
    • โš•๏ธCapital Efficency
  • โš™๏ธApplications
    • ๐Ÿ•ด๏ธPolitical Predictions
    • ๐ŸฒFood and Drugs Market
    • ๐ŸŒMacro Studies
    • โบ๏ธMicro Recommendation
    • ๐Ÿ’ขFutarchy
    • ๐Ÿค–AI Markets
  • ๐ŸคConclusion
  • ๐Ÿ“„Reference
  • App
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  1. Prediction Market Basics

Creating Tokens

The first step for a prediction market is to create the outcome tokens. For this we need:

  • A question (ex: ยซ Who will win the 2028 presidential election? ยป).

  • A list of outcomes (ex: ยซ Trump ยป, ยซ Biden ยป, ยซ Other ยป).

  • An oracle (here, weโ€™ll use reality.eth [19] with Kleros [18] as an arbitrator) which can answer the question.

  • A resolution period consisting of the earliest date the market can settle and the time[1] after which the market is to be invalid if the outcome is still unknown.

  • An underlying token, to be used to create the outcome tokens and to be given to users redeeming their tokens (in order to be capital efficient, we can use a yield bearing one such as sDAI or stETH).

People can mint complete sets of outcome tokens by providing underlying tokens. For example, someone can put 1000 sDAI to create 1000 ยซ sDAI if Trump ยป, 1000 ยซ sDAI if Biden ยป and 1000 ยซ sDAI if Other ยป.

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Last updated 1 year ago

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